美国次贷危机与我国住房抵押贷款证券化的重新审视

美国次贷危机的深层机理在于,由于住房抵押贷款证券化的中间作用,银行、证券投资者放宽了对次贷债务人信用和偿债能力的要求,导致次贷市场盲目扩大,一旦证券化操作存在漏洞,次贷市场崩溃就是必然的。由此给我国的启示是,必须尽快完善证券化立法,确保拟证券化的资产为优质资产,信用加强和信用评级也不能流于形式。     

The law and ethics of big data analytics: A new role for international human rights in the search for global standards

The Economist recently declared that digital information has overtaken oil as the world’s most valuable commodity. Big data technology is inherently global and borderless, yet little international consensus exists over what standards should govern its use. One source of global standards benefitting from considerable international consensus might be used to fill the gap: international human rights law. This article considers the extent to which international human rights law operates as a legal or ethical constraint on global commercial use of big data technologies. By providing clear baseline standards that apply worldwide, human rights can help shape cultural norms—implemented as ethical practices and global policies and procedures—about what businesses should do with their information technologies. In this way, human rights could play a broad and important role in shaping business thinking about the proper handling of this increasingly valuable commodity in the modern global society.     

Why is Price Dispersion Higher Online than Offline? The Impact of Retailer Type and Shopping Risk on Price Dispersion

When physically similar products, of similar quality, are offered by retailers both online and offline, we often observe that the dispersion in prices of these products online is greater than the price dispersion offline. This observation runs counter to early theories that suggested price dispersion online would be smaller than that offline due to the ease of search and information availability online. This paper investigates and provides an explanation for this puzzling phenomenon by examining the impact of two important drivers of price dispersion: retailer type and consumers’ shopping risk. Retailer type refers to whether a retailer is a pure offline, pure online, or dual channel retailer. Shopping risk is defined as the product of consumers’ perceived risk of shopping and the transaction uncertainty related to shopping at different types of retailers.A game-theoretic approach is adopted to model consumers’ price search and product purchase, as well as price competition within and across retailer types in online and offline markets. Equilibrium pricing strategies are derived for different retailer types competing for different consumer segments with different levels of perceived shopping risk. The impact of retailer type and shopping risk on online versus offline price dispersion are quantified, and conditions when price dispersion is greater online than offline are identified.Results indicate that price dispersion is greater online when the number of pure online retailers is sufficiently large and is increasing in the number of pure online retailers. In addition, a reduction in online shopping risk may actually increase online price dispersion. Results further suggest that even without any online sales, dual channel retailers should maintain their online presence for the purpose of information dissemination, which justifies the importance for pure offline retailer to incorporate webrooming strategies, where consumers can search for prices online but purchase offline.     

以马克思主义哲学指引中国改革开放40年的财政改革

实践观点是马克思主义哲学首要的和基本的观点,基于风险理性的财政改革要求必须以马克思主义科学实践观为指引。从哲学的角度来看,中国的财政改革要从“此岸世界”到“彼岸世界”,并无现成的模式可以借鉴,唯有通过实践来实现,就是要“摸着石头过河”。“摸着石头过河”的改革路径有一个很重要的做法是先试点后推广。渐进式改革是要根据客观实际的变化在一定的条件下逐步释放改革措施,这是基于马克思主义量变和质变原理的改革路径,增值税改革就是渐进式改革的典型案例。“否定之否定”原理说明适时变与不变应基于事物变化的情况特别是风险的变化来考虑。这一点在我国收费制度的改革中得到了充分体现。“矛盾的普遍性和特殊性”原理说明改革不能搞一刀切,这在我国财政体制改革推进过程中非常明显。“整体与局部的关系”是调动两个积极性的重要哲学基础。服务于国家治理目标的财政体制改革,应当继续坚持马克思主义哲学为指引,根据国家治理体系与治理能力现代化的新要求做出优化调整。     

美国金融危机压力的来源及其对中国防范金融风险的启示——基于MIMIC模型的实证分析

党的十九大报告指出：“要坚决打好防范化解重大风险攻坚战,其关键又是防范金融风险,包括防范中国系统性金融风险的发生和抵御国际性金融危机传导所带来的外部冲击。”2007年由美国次贷危机演变成的全球性金融危机,至今还在持续影响着部分国家的经济和金融发展。2015年底开始的美国第六轮加息周期和2018年3月中美贸易战的爆发,使得中国的经济发展面临更大的机遇和挑战。本文以次贷危机为背景,基于MIMIC模型对2005—2016年的美国金融危机压力进行了测度,找到压力的来源为外汇储备增长率、出口增长率和实际有效汇率高估三个方面,进而分析其产生的根本原因,最后从三方面提出中国防范化解重大风险的对策和启示。     

道德风险视域下职业经理人信用评价体系构建及测度：以重庆市为例

道德风险总是困扰着职业经理人群体,对企业发展产生不利影响。在实践中,作为建立健全社会信用体系的重要环节,职业经理人信用评价是防范职业经理人群体道德风险的基本思路和必要举措。本文基于马克思主义的理论启示,探索职业经理人三个维度的道德关系和道德风险,并围绕三个维度指向的个人信用、职业信用与职务信用等具体信用构成,阐述职业经理人信用评价内涵。进而,结合职业经理人信用评价内涵,构建系统应对道德风险的职业经理人信用评价体系,并以重庆为例进行实证测度。在此基础上,提出促进职业经理人道德意识与信用水平提升、实现新时代职业经理人群体高素质发展的对策建议。     

Export intensity of foreign subsidiaries of multinational enterprises: The role of trade finance availability

We examine the relationship between the role of trade finance availability and the export intensity of foreign subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs). In developing our hypotheses, we draw upon insights derived from “new” internalisation theory (international business literature) and international trade finance (international economics literature). We empirically test these hypotheses using survey data compiled from subsidiary managers in six ASEAN countries, supplemented with host-country level data. We conceptualise, empirically test, and establish that the subsidiary-level capability in combining and utilising internal and external debts is an important subsidiary-specific advantage to support export intensity. We find that subsidiaries employ intra-firm loans from MNE internal capital markets and, to some extent, bank loans from external financial institutions to boost their export intensity. Subsidiaries may have concerns about foreign exchange risks, but the use of appropriate foreign exchange risk management is positively associated with export intensity. We discuss the implications of our findings for theory and practice.     

基于客车流量监测数据的浙江省旅游业现状分析

客运交通是旅游业发展的"晴雨表",在反映旅游客源结构、预见旅游波动风险方面具有重要作用。本文尝试使用客车流量实时监测数据分析浙江省旅游业的发展现状,发现客车流量数据分析能够很好地反映浙江省旅游业的发展状况和空间格局变化,从中可提炼一些规律性问题;考察客源结构特征(包括客源的时间分布、组织形式、空间分布等)有利于发现商机、有针对性地拓展市场,分析客源结构特征变化有助于预见和规避旅游市场波动的风险。     

An Agenda for Reforming Economic Theory

In this article, Nobel Prize Laureate Joseph Stiglitz argues that the standard macro-economic paradigm has failed not only to predict the crisis but also to provide insights into the design of a regulatory framework that would make a recurrence less likely. He points out that many of the underlying assumptions of the standard paradigm always seemed implausible and many of its predictions, such as those concerning the micro-economic behavior of the constituents (firms and households), are inconsistent with the empirical evidence. He then identifies a number of key modeling challenges, what he views as key ingredients that have to be incorporated in any model that is going to describe economic fluctuations or be the basis of a well-designed regulatory or monetary framework.     

The effects of consumer empowerment on risk perception and satisfaction with food consumption

This study intends to measure consumer empowerment related to food consumption and determine its effect on food risk perception and satisfaction with food consumption. Data were derived from an analysis of the “2017 Research on Food Consumption Behaviour” by the Korea Rural Economic Institute. Consumer empowerment, risk perception and satisfaction with food consumption were measured using a 5‐point Likert scale. The differences in consumer empowerment according to gender, age, educational level and monthly income were statistically significant. The factors that affected risk perception were information use, healthy eating, consumer rights, consumer responsibility and monthly income. The higher the scores for information use, healthy eating and consumer responsibility, the higher the score for satisfaction with food consumption.